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SCB sees the possibility of the USD making a new high before settling into a range in the near term.

Standard Charted Bank Predicts USD May Appreciate against Emerging Market Currencies
Photo: Reuters
Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) in the latest report named “Gradually Shifting Preferences” gave out some predictions on the exchange rates of some main currencies. 
SCB’s near-term USD outlook is balanced. SCB expects heightened volatility in Q4 that may be triggered by developments in global trade, global growth and interest rate differentials. In medium-term, the USD may extend its appreciation against some Emerging Market (EM) currencies, but remain range-bound against a recovering Developed Market (DM) currency basket. 
Near-term EUR weakness is likely to reassert on hawkish Fed and benign ECB. Medium term, we expect a broadly range-bound EUR/USD as growth and inflation gaps narrow slowly.
In China, the PBoC has restored FX stability. SCB has a negative CNY bias medium-term. A weaker CNY may be a safety valve for a slowing economy and rising trade tensions. This may spill over to EM FX.
USD – Range-bound in the near term and medium term
SCB sees the possibility of the USD making a new high before settling into a range in the near term. DXY support around 92.65-93.65 should hold and support a rally to re-test the August high near 97.00 – and possibly our retracement target at 97.90. In the medium term, we believe a broad DM recovery in growth and inflation will dampen US outperformance and the USD will be range-bound.
Tighter USD global liquidity and a weakening CNY may cause further USD strength against some EM currencies.
EUR – Near-term weakness on global trade and Italy; medium-term range-trading
Near term, EUR/USD strong resistance between 1.1850 and 1.1950 should hold, and we expect the current rally to reverse for the next, perhaps final, phase of the USD rally since February will reassert. A break below 1.15 support would target the 1.13 August low and possibly to 1.1190.
The EUR may also face headwinds from slowing Chinese growth. Concerns over Brexit talks and the emergence of Italian populist budget proposals are also a risk. In the medium term, a stabilisation of the Euro area economy and an increasing focus on the outlook for Euro area monetary policy settings should create a base for EUR/USD and set the stage for a period of range-trading.
JPY – Near-term JPY weakness expected as medium-term range persists
Recently, the USD/JPY rally continued as foreign investors sold Japanese equities and the USD remained the “safe haven of choice”. SCB expects the BoJ to hold to its monetary policy, despite talk of “stealth tapering”. SCB believes USD/JPY will press towards the strong 114.70-115.00 level near term.
In the medium-term, bilateral US trade negotiations are important for USD/JPY direction. The JPY’s undervaluation is likely to become a more dominant theme as the USD peaks. SCB expects slowing global growth and safe-haven JPY demand to constrain USD/JPY to the 109.50 - 115.50 range.
GBP – Uncertainty and volatility as Brexit dominates GBP outlook
Brexit remains the key driver for both the short- and medium term. GBP strength has been driven by expectations that compromise on both sides will prevent a “no-deal Brexit”. The opposition Labour Party is including a 2nd referendum in its manifesto and may mount a serious challenge to the government. Increased short GBP speculative positioning could trigger a sharp rally if a 2nd vote becomes a real option, although a strong Labour government is no panacea for markets given its strong left-leaning ideology.
SCB expects volatile range-trading to continue in the near term as GBP/USD approaches important resistance levels at 1.3315 and 1.3515. A break of 1.30 would open further downside risk to re-test the 1.2660 low and an important target support around 1.25

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